GRAA NEWSLETTER
P.O. Box 1184, Greenbelt, MD 20768-1184


 

November 2021 http://GoddardRetirees.org 37th Year of Publication

IMPORTANT DATES

November 9 Mark your calendar for the GRAA Luncheon starting at 11:15 a.m. at the Greenbelt American Legion Post #136 at 6900 Greenbelt Road. Our featured speaker will be David DeVorkin, Senior Curator, History of Astronomy and the Space Sciences, at the National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution. His talk, “Science with a Vengeance” is also the title of his book about the origins of the space sciences after WWII using captured V-2 rockets.

Reservations are required, so please contact Alberta Moran on her cell phone at 301-910-0177 or via her email address at bertiemae90@gmail.com not later than noon on November 5th.
December 14 No luncheon. Happy Holidays!

COMMENTS FROM TONY COMBERIATE AND ARLIN KRUEGER:

Our October luncheon speaker was Dr. Claire Parkinson, a Climate Change Senior Scientist in Goddard’s Earth Sciences Division and a Goddard Senior Fellow, who serves as Project Scientist for the Aqua satellite. Claire is internationally known through her sea ice research and has been elected to the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. She is an author of over 100 publications, including books on satellite imagery, climate modeling, and climate change. Her presentation was entitled “What a 42-Year Satellite Record Shows About Earth’s Changing Sea Ice Coverage.” This is one of the key areas where Goddard-led missions have measured climate and global warming parameters.

After joining Goddard’s Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences in 1978, Claire began analyzing sea ice using data from the Nimbus 5 and 7 satellites. Wintertime sea ice typically covers about 15 million square kilometers (an area 1.5 times the size of the U.S.) in the Arctic region and about 18 million square kilometers in the Antarctic region. Satellite measurements are crucial when analyzing sea ice for climate studies, because of the vast areal coverages. Landsat visible light images of ice were limited to daylight and clear skies, and thus could not provide a full census of ice coverage. The Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) flown on Nimbus 5 measured microwave radiation from the surface that passed through clouds, thus opening up full day/night coverage in the polar regions. Emissivity differences between sea ice and sea water allowed calculation of effective sea ice area. ESMR was followed by the Nimbus-7 SMMR, DMSP SSMI, and the Aqua AMSR-E to produce a multi-decadal record.

Sea ice is a good insulator for the ocean under it, and it reflects sunlight back into space, so any changes in the sea ice coverage will affect other aspects of the climate system as well. As the sea ice decreases, more radiation is absorbed by the ocean, leading to further warming. In the Arctic, sea ice coverage showed a definite decreasing trend by 1999, when the trend since the late 1970s showed that on average a 34 thousand square kilometer area of ice coverage, about the size of the state of Maryland, was lost each year. About the same time, data from submarines analyzed by the University of Washington showed a decrease in the thickness of the sea ice, yielding more evidence in line with global warming. The record is complicated by inter-annual variability. In 2007 and again in 2012, satellites detected particularly low extents of Arctic late summer sea ice. Although alarming, these anomalies were determined to be caused by preconditioning (thin and less concentrated ice) and large storms. Data through 2020 show that since the late 1970s, on average the Arctic has lost approximately 55 thousand square kilometers of sea ice each year. This loss of sea ice has been a major reason why the Arctic region’s ocean and atmosphere have been warming much faster than almost anywhere else on Earth and why its coastal erosion is also more significant.

On the contrary, Antarctic sea ice area grew slowly until a gigantic decrease was seen in 2014 - 2017, erasing almost the entire gain. Some rebounding, along with continued variability, has occurred since 2017. There is no consensus on the cause of the rapid decrease between 2014 and 2017.

Claire showed results of a Goddard model that simulated a 4.17 K increase in the Earth’s temperature if the amount of carbon dioxide was doubled. Taking sea ice calculations out of the model resulted in a temperature increase of 2.61 K rather than 4.17 K, implying that 37% of the simulated global warming was due to the loss of sea ice.

In summary, sea ice is a major factor in and a primary indicator of global warming. It greatly affects the amount of radiation absorbed in the polar regions. Spacecraft are incredibly important in measuring sea ice because of the large areas that need to be observed. Data clearly show that the amount of Arctic sea ice is decreasing and that the Arctic and the globe as a whole are experiencing warming. Data from the Antarctic region are more puzzling, but scientists are delving into possible explanations.

REMEMBERING OUR FORMER COLLEAGUES:

FROM THE GODDARD ARCHIVES — IT HAPPENED IN NOVEMBER:

Fifty years ago on November 15, 1971 Scout launched SSS-A/Explorer 45 to conduct particle fluxes, electric and magnetic field measurements in the magnetosphere. It was launched into an equatorial orbit from San Marco Platform in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Kenya.

TREASURER’S REPORT: Treasurer Jackie Gasch received donations from Ron Browning, Colleen Quinn-House, and Deborah Knapp.